2019-nCoV = novel coronavirus 2019 = SARS-CoV-2 (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome)
COVID-19 = disease caused by infection with SARS-CoV-2/2019-nCoV
2019-nCoV and bats
Coronavirus 2019-nCoV is 88% identical to two bat-related corona viruses found in South China in 2018. 2019-nCoV shows 79.5% similarity to the genome of SARS-CoV. For 96%, 2019 nCoV is identical to a bat coronavirus. Coronavirus 2019 nCoV is likely to share a common precursor with bat coronavirus RaTG13. Viruses that have sprung from the strain of RaTG13 may have taken decades to mutate into the current coronavirus 2019-nCoV (Mining coronavirus genomes for clues to the outbreak's origins, AAAS Science, January 31, 2020).
Almost with certainty, the bat can be identified as the original source of the current coronavirus 2019 nCoV (Bat Coronaviruses in China, MDPI Viruses, March 2019, 11 (3): 210, published March 2, 2019). The prediction of the 2019 nCoV outbreak in China was made in March 2019. Typical for coronaviruses is that the genome of a bat coronavirus does not have to adapt to the human host's DNA first; the S protein in coronaviruses (including SARSr-CoVs) can attach to the human receptor ACE2 (involved in the circulatory and gastrointestinal systems).
COVID-19 = disease caused by infection with SARS-CoV-2/2019-nCoV
2019-nCoV and bats
Coronavirus 2019-nCoV is 88% identical to two bat-related corona viruses found in South China in 2018. 2019-nCoV shows 79.5% similarity to the genome of SARS-CoV. For 96%, 2019 nCoV is identical to a bat coronavirus. Coronavirus 2019 nCoV is likely to share a common precursor with bat coronavirus RaTG13. Viruses that have sprung from the strain of RaTG13 may have taken decades to mutate into the current coronavirus 2019-nCoV (Mining coronavirus genomes for clues to the outbreak's origins, AAAS Science, January 31, 2020).
Almost with certainty, the bat can be identified as the original source of the current coronavirus 2019 nCoV (Bat Coronaviruses in China, MDPI Viruses, March 2019, 11 (3): 210, published March 2, 2019). The prediction of the 2019 nCoV outbreak in China was made in March 2019. Typical for coronaviruses is that the genome of a bat coronavirus does not have to adapt to the human host's DNA first; the S protein in coronaviruses (including SARSr-CoVs) can attach to the human receptor ACE2 (involved in the circulatory and gastrointestinal systems).
Contrary to popular belief: coronaviruses are BAT viruses, they are not mutations of influenza. Both coronaviruses and influenza mutants put individuals with a weakened immune system at risk. Prevention and minimization of the spread of coronaviruses is urgent. Firstly, no vaccine is available yet. Second, coronaviruses among the human population should not mutate into common coronavirus.
Transmission from bat to human
The September 2019 edition of Elsevier Biosafety and Health contains a comprehensive study of the cross-contamination between bat and human in southern China. The bat caves in the South of China are the main shelter of SARS-CoV. Bats' immune systems are likely to work great. A bat's cells have evolved to exclude coronaviruses. Bats are capable of storing viruses outside the cells, though still inside the body. Outside of the body, coronaviruses survive for up to 9 days (Persistence of coronaviruses on inanimate surfaces and their inactivation within biocidal agents, Journal of Hospital Infection, vol. 104 issue 3, March 2020). Coronaviruses can be transferred via bat droppings and urine to a host that does not have such a strong immune system. This can be an intermediate host in the form of a wild animal or a slaughter pig.
The human population's interactions with wild animals, domestic animals and the immediate environment are the catalysts for the spread of coronaviruses. Research has shown that there has been no direct contact between the inhabitants of the rural South and the bats. The coronaviruses have been distributed through intermediate hosts at first. Among the intermediate hosts are civets, porcupines, ferrets, pigs, poultry. The seropositive respondents were exposed to coronaviruses via domesticated animals and agricultural goods. The respondents in the study indicated that they had not taken any measures to limit exposure to pathogens. In addition, the bat caves in southern China attract lots of people during the summer months (New research: Bats harbor hundreds of coronaviruses, and spillovers aren't rare, NPR, February 20, 2020).
The source of contamination (not: place of origin, which is still unclear in March 2020) of 2019-nCoV is the Wuhan Wholesale Seafood Market, where probably contaminated imported goods are traded. Wuhan's population density, the rate at which infected persons, animals and goods are transported, and hygiene are factors that have all contributed to the rapid spread of the most recent Corona virus.
The bat cave that is the breeding ground for 2019-nCoV and a multitude of other (corona) viruses was discovered as early as 2005, but due to a lack of financial resources, further research was forced to be canceled (Cave full of bats in China identified as source of virus almost identical to 2019-nCoV, National Post, February 6, 2020).
The September 2019 edition of Elsevier Biosafety and Health contains a comprehensive study of the cross-contamination between bat and human in southern China. The bat caves in the South of China are the main shelter of SARS-CoV. Bats' immune systems are likely to work great. A bat's cells have evolved to exclude coronaviruses. Bats are capable of storing viruses outside the cells, though still inside the body. Outside of the body, coronaviruses survive for up to 9 days (Persistence of coronaviruses on inanimate surfaces and their inactivation within biocidal agents, Journal of Hospital Infection, vol. 104 issue 3, March 2020). Coronaviruses can be transferred via bat droppings and urine to a host that does not have such a strong immune system. This can be an intermediate host in the form of a wild animal or a slaughter pig.
The human population's interactions with wild animals, domestic animals and the immediate environment are the catalysts for the spread of coronaviruses. Research has shown that there has been no direct contact between the inhabitants of the rural South and the bats. The coronaviruses have been distributed through intermediate hosts at first. Among the intermediate hosts are civets, porcupines, ferrets, pigs, poultry. The seropositive respondents were exposed to coronaviruses via domesticated animals and agricultural goods. The respondents in the study indicated that they had not taken any measures to limit exposure to pathogens. In addition, the bat caves in southern China attract lots of people during the summer months (New research: Bats harbor hundreds of coronaviruses, and spillovers aren't rare, NPR, February 20, 2020).
The source of contamination (not: place of origin, which is still unclear in March 2020) of 2019-nCoV is the Wuhan Wholesale Seafood Market, where probably contaminated imported goods are traded. Wuhan's population density, the rate at which infected persons, animals and goods are transported, and hygiene are factors that have all contributed to the rapid spread of the most recent Corona virus.
The bat cave that is the breeding ground for 2019-nCoV and a multitude of other (corona) viruses was discovered as early as 2005, but due to a lack of financial resources, further research was forced to be canceled (Cave full of bats in China identified as source of virus almost identical to 2019-nCoV, National Post, February 6, 2020).
Could this dramatic spread have been prevented?
An inconvenient notion is that the spread could have been prevented by isolating vacationers and commuters from the Wuhan area as soon as people were tested positive for 2019-nCoV. Governments of other areas and states could have refused to admit persons from this initial contamination area.
Governments have allowed tourists and commuters to travel during the incubation period, thereby creating major risks for the population. First, an estimation error has been made with regard to the incubation period, which was initially set at 14 days and appears to be more than 21 days. Secondly, it was assumed that the virus would not spread until symptoms occur, while infected hosts are also contagious without showing symptoms (Feasability of controlling COVID-19 outbreaks by isolation of cases and contacts, The Lancet, on published on February 28, 2020).
Isolating infected persons or persons from risk areas is dismissed as "treating people like a Pariah." For the sake of avoiding discrimination, no isolation measures have been and will not be taken to limit the spread. In addition, economic interests play the largest role in balancing protection of a nation's human population and the interest of stimulating the economy in the short term. After the discovery of the first seat of fire and subsequent incubators of 2019-nCoV, the officer in charge could have already decided to issue negative travel advice and to immediately apply professional quarantine.
The 2003 SARS epidemic was successfully brought under control by isolating and providing medical care to infected individuals as soon as possible, by applying travel restrictions and screening passengers at airports. The curbing of the SARS epidemic serves as a standard for the current 2019 nCoV epidemic (Coronavirus latest: global infections pass 90,000, Nature, updates on 2019-nCoV). Researchers recommend taking draconian isolation measures in affected areas to prevent further spread of 2019 nCoV. To prevent and minimize contamination within one area, it is prescribed to cancel meetings, close schools and work from home (Nowcasting and forecasting the potential domestic and international spread of the 2019-nCoV outbreak originating in Wuhan, China: a modeling study, The Lancet, vol. 395, issue 10225, February 29, 2020 (published on the Internet on January 31, 2020). The role of children as spreaders of the virus is being investigated. Children are equally likely to become infected with the virus, but seem to be less troubled by the symptoms. It is recommended that primary schools and childcare be closed (Coronavirus latest: global infections pass 90,000, Nature, updates on 2019-nCoV).
The role of high-density modalities in the spread of 2019-nCoV
2019-nCoV has spread across the world at lightning speed by transporting travelers from Wuhan to the international community within a relatively short period of time. Aviation and shipping are main intermediaries in the distribution of 2019-nCoV. Coronaviruses have a lifespan of up to 9 days outside the body. Where groups of people are concentrated (plane or boat), viruses can successfully spread to multiple hosts within a short period of time. In the immediate living environment, public transport, lecture halls and other locations that house many people at the same time contribute to the spread of viruses.
